Volatility in the market is something that you need to understand when trading. High volatility means that the price action is moving between two wide prices. Low volatility means that the price action is moving between two very narrow prices. Now, knowing that the market is volatile is very important. How do you measure volatility. Statistically we measure volatility with standard deviation. But there is a highly popular technical indicator that does it for you graphically by plotting the standard deviations. This is the Bollinger Bands. Two bands are plotted. One above the moving average with a period of 20 and one below the moving average. Period of 20 is used because it is a good representation of an intermediate trend.
Bollinger bands may be applied to any market or security. Any timeframes from daily, weekly, monthly to intraday can be used. Primary advantage of using these bands is to check if the prices are relatively low or high.
Volatility is a very important variable for an options trader. The more volatility there is on the underlying stock, the more option price will swing. Now when the volatility in the market is low, these bands get narrow and when the volatility in the market increases,these bands widen too.
Now, prices can be within the band or outside the band. When prices are outside the bands, this is taken as a signal that the trend is most likely to continue. When prices are above the upper band, this is taken as a sign of strength in the market. However, when the prices are below the lower band, this is taken as a sign of weakness in the market.
When the bands happen to tighten as they do when the volatility in the market decreases, rapid and substantial price moves often take place after the band tightens. This is something an experienced trader always keeps in mind. Now, Bollinger Bands are mostly used in conjunction with other technical indicators like the Commodity Channel Index (CCI), Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), Relative Strength Index (RSI) and others.
Now the recommended setting for these bands is two standard deviations above and below the moving average with the period 20. These bands will keep on moving close or away from the moving average as a function of the market volatility.
In case of very short timeframes, the moving average period should be lowered to 10 and the standard deviation should also be decreased to one and a half for the two bands. But sometimes, you want to trade a longer timeframe. In that case, 50 is usually used as the period for the moving average with longer trends and the standard deviation settings for the two bands should be increased to two and half standard deviations.
As said before, these bands are traded in conjunction with other technical indicators. In case of the stock market, a period of 20 for the moving average is okay. Trading these bands is one of the most powerful concepts that is available to any trader whethet stocks, futures, forex, options or commodities.
Now these bands do not provide absolute signals when prices touch these bands. These signals should only be taken as relative and confirmed in conjunction with other technical indicators.
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